March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

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AnotherFairportfan
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Re: March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

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China finds coronavirus on frozen meat, packaging from Latin America, New Zealand
BEIJING (Reuters) - The Chinese city of Jinan said over the weekend it had found coronavirus on beef and tripe and their packaging from Brazil, Bolivia and New Zealand, while two other provincial capitals detected it on packaging on pork from Argentina.

China is ramping up testing on frozen foods after repeatedly detecting the virus on imported products, triggering disrupting import bans, even as the World Health Organization says the risk of catching COVID-19 from frozen food is low.

In Jinan, capital of eastern China's Shandong province, the goods involved were imported by a unit of Guotai International Group 002091.SZ, and Shanghai Zhongli Development Trade, the city's municipal health commission said late on Saturday.
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Re: March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

Post by lake_wrangler »

As I am catching up on reading The Whiteboard, I find that Doc is apparently prescient...
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Re: March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

Post by Typeminer »

The Whiteboard and Doc's forum are among the best things on the web. Aside from all the tremendous mad genius stuff, Doc does a great job of keeping it a space where people with obviously different political views can discuss and joke about the interests they have in common.
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Re: March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

Post by lake_wrangler »

And he won't hesitate to make a joke at the virus' expense...
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Re: March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

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Re: March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

Post by Atomic »

And, regarding the utility of masks:
New study: Lockdowns & masks are useless and might even increase COVID-19 spread
A recently completed research study by Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai in cooperation with the Naval Medical Research Center and published in the New England Journal of Medicine has found that strict quarantine, tightly controlled social distancing, and continuous use of masks did absolutely nothing to contain the spread of COVID-19, and might even have increased its spread.
Study cited here.
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Re: March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

Post by Dave »

Atomic wrote: Tue Nov 17, 2020 12:14 pm And, regarding the utility of masks:
New study: Lockdowns & masks are useless and might even increase COVID-19 spread
A recently completed research study by Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai in cooperation with the Naval Medical Research Center and published in the New England Journal of Medicine has found that strict quarantine, tightly controlled social distancing, and continuous use of masks did absolutely nothing to contain the spread of COVID-19, and might even have increased its spread.
Study cited here.
Have you actually read the study, to compare its findings against those flashy headlines? They're very different... in fact I'm not sure they're even on the same planet.

From what I can see in the study itself,
  • " continuous use of masks did absolutely nothing to contain the spread of COVID-19"... I don't see any such language or anything like it in the study as reported in the link you cited.
  • "and might even have increased its spread"... nope, not that, either. No such claims or conclusions are in the study.
Those words all appear to be the private conclusions of the editorialist on behindtheblack, not those of the study's authors. And, because the behindtheblack blogger appears to have misunderstood a very important aspect of the study (see down at the bottom) he's jumped to some completely unsupportable conclusions.

What the study actually says is:
CONCLUSIONS

Among Marine Corps recruits, approximately 2% who had previously had negative results for SARS-CoV-2 at the beginning of supervised quarantine, and less than 2% of recruits with unknown previous status, tested positive by day 14. Most recruits who tested positive were asymptomatic, and no infections were detected through daily symptom monitoring. Transmission clusters occurred within platoons. (Funded by the Defense Health Agency and others.)
The description of the study, and the discussion, follow along similar lines - the study authors report numbers and facts, but they aren't drawing comparisons between "wearing masks and locking down, vs. not doing so". This is a "retrospective" study (looking at what happened in one situation), not a comparative or controlled study looking at two different sets of choices. They did not put two groups of Marine recruits through two different protocols (one in quarantine and wearing masks, and the other doing neither of these two things). All of the recruits in this study were subject to the same isolation protocols (see below).

Now - looking at just the numbers they reported:
A total of 1848 recruits volunteered to participate in the study; within 2 days after arrival on campus, 16 (0.9%) tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, 15 of whom were asymptomatic. An additional 35 participants (1.9%) tested positive on day 7 or on day 14... Of the recruits who declined to participate in the study, 26 (1.7%) of the 1554 recruits with available qPCR results tested positive on day 14.
So - of those who participated, just under 1% seem to have come into quarantine while already infected (positive in the first two days).

There were also 1500 recruits who declined to participate in the study - there's no information about whether they were COVID-positive when they came in (but it's probably reasonable to assume that roughly the same percentage were positive, so maybe another 10 or so). Since they weren't tested during those two weeks, they wouldn't have gone into isolation unless they became obviously ill. So, that's maybe 25 COVID-positive on entry.

About 35 of the participating recruits went positive during those two weeks, and maybe another 15 of the nonparticipating recruits. That would be 50, or a 2:1 ratio.

Since the generation time of COVID is roughly a week, this would suggest an R of 1.4 or so (each infected person passing on the infection to about 1.4 other individuals).

That's not great, but under the circumstances it's not horrible. It's a long way from a "super-spreader" event, where one person infects numerous others (as appears to have happened at the Rose Garden).

Consider that this was a big group of recruits, using shared bathrooms and shared dining facilities... lots of potential for transmission. This was not a family environment.

All in all, it looks to me as if the isolation/masking/distancing/cleaning protocol worked pretty well. Compare the spread here to what has happened on cruise ships, for example, or in prisons... they aren't even of the same order of magnitude.

Also, the author of the "behindtheblack" column appears to have made a major mis-reading of the study conditions. He claims that because the non-participating recruits showed a lower infection rate, and "because they weren't subject to the same strict lock-down rules", it shows that masks and locking down are worse than useless.

His error is simple: the study report says very clearly that:
All recruits wore double-layered cloth masks at all times indoors and outdoors, except when sleeping or eating; practiced social distancing of at least 6 feet; were not allowed to leave campus; did not have access to personal electronics and other items that might contribute to surface transmission; and routinely washed their hands. They slept in double-occupancy rooms with sinks, ate in shared dining facilities, and used shared bathrooms. All recruits cleaned their rooms daily, sanitized bathrooms after each use with bleach wipes, and ate preplated meals in a dining hall that was cleaned with bleach after each platoon had eaten. Most instruction and exercises were conducted outdoors. All movement of recruits was supervised, and unidirectional flow was implemented, with designated building entry and exit points to minimize contact among persons. All recruits, regardless of participation in the study, underwent daily temperature and symptom screening.
The lockdown conditions were the same for all recruits! The only difference that I can see in the report, between the "participating" and "non-participating" recruits, is that the "participating" recruits agreed to be tested for COVID on entry and on day 7, while everybody was tested on day 14.

And, once again, the study has not "strict quarantine, tightly controlled social distancing, and continuous use of masks did absolutely nothing to contain the spread of COVID-19, and might even have increased its spread." That's just sloppy journalism making those claims.
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Re: March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

Post by jwhouk »

Arizona Average Daily New Cases by week
Week EndingAvg. New CasesAvg. New Deaths
11 Jul3,625.2949.43
18 Jul3,047.8682.71
25 Jul2,682.2979.43
1 Aug2,423.0065.86
8 Aug1,300.7155.71
15 Aug935.2950.71
22 Aug748.7137.71
29 Aug484.5735.86
5 Sep604.1428.57
12 Sep373.1415.43
19 Sep774.7121.71
26 Sep467.5722.14
3 Oct510.7111.86
10 Oct654.147.71
17 Oct775.579.29
24 Oct909.296.43
31 Oct1,310.7115.71
7 Nov1,636.7124.00
14 Nov2,235.5721.86
21 Nov*2,203.9716.01
* - Incomplete Week
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Re: March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

Post by lake_wrangler »

Over the last few months, I have seen all kinds of masks being worn by people. While a number of them merely had various interesting prints and patterns on them, some also had messages written on them.

For instance, I have seen students wearing "Black Lives Matter" and "I can't breathe" masks. One of my regular passengers in the morning has a mask that says "Fake Pandemic".

But the best one I have seen has to be the one I saw yesterday morning:

"If you can read this, you are too close"

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
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Re: March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

Post by Warrl »

lake_wrangler wrote: Wed Nov 18, 2020 11:55 am But the best one I have seen has to be the one I saw yesterday morning:

"If you can read this, you are too close"

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
I've seen that one - being worn upside-down.

A couple days ago I saw one that said "will unmask for doggy kisses". And I was wearing a doggy-nose mask. But since it was a complete stranger, I merely commented on the irony.
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Re: March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

Post by lake_wrangler »

Warrl wrote: Wed Nov 18, 2020 12:38 pmA couple days ago I saw one that said "will unmask for doggy kisses". And I was wearing a doggy-nose mask. But since it was a complete stranger, I merely commented on the irony.
I commend you for your restraint. :mrgreen:
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Re: March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

Post by jwhouk »

Your weekly reminder.

As of Nov. 21, Okanogan County in Washington had a higher percentage of active cases to population (2,961/100k) than Mohave County in Arizona (2,518/100k).

Mohave County, with Kingman as the county seat (and most notable for being the western end of Route 66 in Arizona and the corridor between Phoenix and Las Vegas) has over 5 times the population as Okanogan County.

My ZIP code in Arizona has seen an increase to 3,190 cases. That is currently 5.24% of the population.
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Re: March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

Post by lake_wrangler »

Another example of abuse of power brought on by this pandemic, this time in Australia:


(Yes, the title on the thumbnail is slightly misleading, but the actual video title is not...)
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Re: March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

Post by lake_wrangler »

More of the same, this time in Manitoba, Canada:

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Re: March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

Post by lake_wrangler »

I forgot to mention...

A week or two ago, as I was driving to work and listening to the radio, they were interviewing the owner of a winery in France, who decided to name this year's batch "The COVID test"...

On the label, it says "If you can smell and taste this, you don't have COVID."

8-)
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Re: March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

Post by Atomic »

M. Python wrote:Another good fighting wine is 'Melbourne Old-and-Yellow', which is particularly heavy, and should be used only for hand-to-hand combat. Quite the reverse is true of 'Chateau Chunder', which is an Appalachian controle, specially grown for those keen on regurgitation -- a fine wine which really opens up the sluices at both ends.
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Re: March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

Post by lake_wrangler »

Forewarned is forearmed? :shock:
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Re: March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

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Mandatory mask-wearing is proven to lower the incidence of COVID-19 infections, save lives and boost commercial activity, a new Utah study says.

Researchers with the University of Utah’s David Eccles School of Business examined thousands of state and county mask orders across the country and found that coronavirus cases fell after mask requirements were put in place.

The study, by researchers at the school’s Marriner S. Eccles Institute for Economics and Quantitative Analysis, also indicates that low case counts and mask mandates significantly raised consumer confidence, upping the amount people spend and the number of places these shoppers visit.
Full article at the Salt Lake Tribune.
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Re: March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

Post by AnotherFairportfan »

Music legends Van Morrison and Eric Clapton have announced a new single, “Stand and Deliver,” in support of Morrison’s Save Live Music campaign. The blues track was written by Morrison and is performed by Clapton.

Morrison, best known for songs like “Brown Eyed Girl,” “Domino” and “Wild Night,” as well as seminal albums “Moondance” and “Astral Weeks,” released three songs protesting the U.K. lockdown over September and October, titled “Born To Be Free,” “As I Walked Out” and “No More Lockdown.”

Proceeds from “Stand and Deliver” will go to the Morrison’s Lockdown Financial Hardship Fund, which helps musicians facing difficulties as a result of the coronavirus and resulting lockdown measures.

Clapton — the only three-time inductee to the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame — called the dearth of live events due to lockdown restrictions “deeply upsetting.”

“There are many of us who support Van and his endeavors to save live music; he is an inspiration,” Clapton said. “We must stand up and be counted because we need to find a way out of this mess. The alternative is not worth thinking about. Live music might never recover.”

“Eric’s recording is fantastic and will clearly resonate with the many who share our frustrations,” said Morrison. “It is heart-breaking to see so many talented musicians lack any meaningful support from the government, but we want to reassure them that we are working hard every day to lobby for the return of live music, and to save our industry.”

England on Thursday announced a return to the three-tier system after lockdown lifts on Dec. 2. A number of cities, including the capital region of London and Liverpool, fall under the lesser restrictions of Tier 2. The virus has so far claimed more than 57,000 lives in the U.K.

Clapton and Morrison performed together at London’s O2 Arena in March, to raise funds for The Royal Marsden Cancer Charity, weeks before the first U.K. lockdown was imposed.
Tell you what, Eric - why don't you arrange to do a live concert and xome right down into the crowd and invite them all to sing along?
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Re: March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

Post by jwhouk »

Your weekly reminder:

1. There are now over 20 million active cases of COVID-19 worldwide. The United States, with 6.477 million of those, is responsible for 31% of all active cases.

2. The number of COVID-19 deaths in the United States is over 268,000, which is about 18% of all deaths related to the disease worldwide.

3. As of November 28, Okanogan County, Washington, has a higher percentage of active cases per 100k population (3,122/100k) than Mohave County, Arizona. (Mohave County has five times the population, despite it being mostly rural - similar to Okanogan).

4. While only having about 18,000 more in population than Okanogan, my ZIP code in Mesa has a 5,791/100k active case rate.

5. Mesa Public Schools posted to its dashboard on Wednesday that there were now 207 active cases among the 67,518 staff and students in the district. Two schools (Red Mountain HS and Sousa Elementary) currently have 13 cases each; Sousa is likely to end the semester on remote learning.

6. Arizona had its 300,000th case confirmed back on Monday, November 23. Maricopa County will likely have its 200,000th case sometime next week, likely on or before December 1st. (Yes, Maricopa has 63% of all active cases within the state; it also has 61% of the population in the state.)
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