Wapsi Square Forum

Dave wrote: ↑Sat Mar 28, 2020 7:00 pm

Warrl wrote: ↑Sat Mar 28, 2020 3:20 pm Things are looking VERY good so far for hydroxychloroquine+azithromycin. Both are long-approved medications with significant amounts in existence and significant production facilities already operating.

Could you provide some citations to the tests and trials you've seen? I haven't yet seen any cited (anywhere) which demonstrate that this combination actually reduces the death rate. Major trials seen to have only started a few days ago. The small French trial everybody's talking about has received a lot of criticism for faulty methodology, and as I recall this trial showed reduced vital load (surely a good thing) but didn't demonstrate a lower death rate.

Could you (1) consider what the words "so far" mean, and (2) consider that when qualified physicians decline to have a control group because they think the medication is sufficiently strongly indicated that it would be unethical to deliberately not give it to some of their patients, and then go on to apparently-eliminate a virus from 97% of patients, "looks very good so far" isn't an unreasonable comment.

Sure be nice if it works out but I'm not about to bet my life that it will.

Now that I agree with. You may also note that I allowed for the possibility that NONE of the treatments currently being tried will prove out.

Further update on what may be the French Trial you refer to:

https://techstartups.com/2020/03/27/cor ... ficant-dr/

Payoff quote:

In 80 in-patients receiving a combination of hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin, the team found a clinical improvement in all but one 86 year-old patient who died, and one 74-year old patient still in intensive care unit. The team also found that, by administering hydroxychloroquine combined with azithromycin, they were able to observe an improvement in all cases, except in one patient who arrived with an advanced form, who was over the age of 86, and in whom the evolution was irreversible, according to a new paper published today in IHU Méditerranée Infection.

“For all other patients in the cohort of 80 people, the combination of hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin resulted in a clinical improvement that appeared significant when compared to the natural evolution in patients with a definite outcome, as described in the literature.

TL;DR: "... we confirm the efficacy of hydroxychloroquine associated with azithromycin in the treatment of COVID-19 and its potential effectiveness in the early impairment of contagiousness. Given the urgent therapeutic need ..., we believe that other teams should urgently evaluate this therapeutic strategy both to avoid the spread of the disease and to treat patients..."

Let's hope they're on to something good!

I had been not going to get involved in this thread, but i thought i'd share this - this thread from PubPeer, which allows readers to ask questions/make comments about published papers raises some questions about methodology, and the publication of results {and the ethics of that publication, as the editor-in-chief of the journal is one of the study authors} anf followups to the study.

I also note that the larger study makes somewhat less sweeping claims than the original one and that the TechStartup article linked in the previous poast here sounds like basically a quote of a translated press release from the team

led by renowned Didier Raoult​ M.D/Ph.D in Marseille

Health and Human Services is taking donations of "30 million doses of hydroxychloroquine sulfate ... and one million doses of chloroquine phosphate...". The FDA has issued an Emergency Use Authorization to authorize their application for COVID-19 patients.

Also (some cross-reporting between them):

Politico - FDA EUA for drugs
Daily Wire - New York Test
Daily Wire - FDA EUA

Further link diving shows France has authorized treatment with these drugs and possibly Brazil, too.

Further potential good news, if valid:

https://techstartups.com/2020/03/28/dr- ... ak-update/

No treatment is 100% effective.

The numbers game. A take on the UK reporting system and what it does and does not reveal about COVID-19.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/The ... s-we-think

The Severity of the CoVID-19 Epidemic is Not as Bad as You Think, According to the Numbers.

From a Doctor whose job is medical research and analytics. Bio and other papers online.

TL;DR: The publicly shared numbers are way overdone due to reasons, mainly lack of context.

Treatment Update: More oxygen, less (ventilator) pressure. Link

Supporting article with more details: Link Alternate link

TL;DR: COVID-19 does not act entirely like Pneumonia - the virus attacks the iron in red blood cells. That explains why Malaria treatments like chloroquine work, because they interrupt the pathway used by bacterial attacks on hemoglobin.

Edit: Source article removed, backup posted - author credibility being questioned.

Obviously if the study is being questioned, this would be a useless thought, but... would an iron-rich diet provide a level of immunity?

Summary story linking to reports of effective uses of hydroxychloroquine with zinc and/or antibiotics in various places.

A counterpoint view on hydroxychloroquine efficacy.

TL;DR: The statistics are very screwy due to incomplete/inaccurate numbers and over-interpretation. Garbage in, garbage out. Solid proof is not available - yet.

Some people around here just don't get it... Social distancing means social distancing! I still see a number of people walking side by side on the sidewalk. Worse yet, there were some people, over the weekend, who were caught playing soccer in a park... They ended up with a $1500 fine for each adult, and a $575 fine for each teenager. And those are fines of the kind that you can't try to fight in court, either...

Meanwhile, seeing as many people are still not heeding the recommendations, there may come a time where travelling is actually restricted, rather than merely discouraged. In view of that possibility, our work has now issued us letters, certifying that we need to travel to get to work, stating:

To whom it may concern,

Mr. [name redacted, in case my employer is looking*], of the Société de Transport de Montréal, holding this document, is recognized by this organization as being an indispensable, essential and necessary resource for its base mission of ensuring the public transit on the island of Montreal.

Consequently, this document authorizes Mr. [name redacted, in case my employer is looking*] to move from one region to another to get to his workplace at the Société de Transport de Montréal, be it in a building, infrastructure, or place served by the STM or where his presence is required.

[Etc...]

"indispensable, essential and necessary resource"...
I have to admit, I don't recall my employer using such laudatory terms for us in... well, ever, really...

Sure, they congratulate us on doing our job during snow storms and stuff (only to turn around and hit us over the head for the slightest "offense", the next day), but never to that degree... It's particularly contrasting the fact that just a few weeks ago, they were reticent to even acquiesce to any of our proposals to keep the drivers safe...

But you never heard that from me, of course*...


*Part of the employee's rules of conduct is the fact that we are not allowed to badmouth our employer on social media... Of course, I doubt they would actually find my post, on a webcomic forum, but hey, one can never be too safe, right?

lake_wrangler wrote: ↑Wed Apr 08, 2020 11:59 pm Some people around here just don't get it... Social distancing means social distancing! I still see a number of people walking side by side on the sidewalk. Worse yet, there were some people, over the weekend, who were caught playing soccer in a park...

I'm gonna split the difference on that one. Social distancing can be taken to absurd lengths. I don't see a problem with people who live together walking side-by-side on a public sidewalk.

The soccer players though... yeah there's such a thing as stupid. About a week ago I happened to see circa 15 people standing rather close together at a bus stop, all but one or two looking to be in the age range of 16-20...

Arkansas has apparently just had its lowest number of new reported cases for a 24 hour period since we started getting them. One of my Facebook friends is an RN, and he and several others who work in hospitals were saying that, around here, at least, hospitals are having trouble keeping busy.

The last numbers I saw, we had around 1100 cases, with 21 deaths so far. I guess it's something to do with our lower population density, but I'm not sure.

Some updated viewpoints. As always take with a grain of salt. My TL;DR: headlines:

Models used are pessimistic

NYC Hospitals not being overtaxed

COVID common, illness less so

Hospital testing show COVID common, likely high immunity numbers

Many embedded links to related stories on numbers and disease rates.

COVID numbers by Bulk vs Rate. Editorial opinions also, but sourced numbers.


TL;DR: (Excluding China - numbers questionable)

Here are the top six countries for deaths per million people.

Spain (339.33)
Italy (311.97)
France (204.15)
The United Kingdom (150.42)
USA (61.95)
Iran (52.68)

In other news; I have the eldest Sister of mine who is a true New Yorker & we heard via a 'How Are You Doing?' ping that she was texting back from the ER w/ a fever and other symptoms.... and then Radio Silence.

There was a day and a half of quiet nail-biting on the West Coast and then she surfaced to report she was on the mend and had by all accounts turned a corner.

It's all numbers on the TV,

until it's not...

TazManiac wrote: ↑Tue Apr 14, 2020 3:08 pm In other news; I have the eldest Sister of mine who is a true New Yorker & we heard via a 'How Are You Doing?' ping that she was texting back from the ER w/ a fever and other symptoms.... and then Radio Silence.

There was a day and a half of quiet nail-biting on the West Coast and then she surfaced to report she was on the mend and had by all accounts turned a corner.

Whew!

Here's hoping that her healing process continues well and thoroughly.

Thx Dave. I used to tease her a bit (while secretly being proud at her tenacity & well, grit) about surviving 9-11 from a few blocks away, and here we go again.

I'm going to have to get her to write up her memoirs...