March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

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Dave
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Re: March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

Post by Dave » Tue Sep 15, 2020 4:14 pm

One bit of good news recently, was a study which suggests that giving COVID-19 patients a good solid dose of a specific Vitamin D metabolite may be quite helpful. Of those patients who were hospitalized, those given this Vitamin D metabolite were much less likely to need to be taken into Intensive Care.

The metabolite in question is calcifediol (25-hydroxycholecalciferol). This isn't drugstore / vitamin-supplement "Vitamin D" (vitamin D3 a.k.a cholecalciferol). It's what cholecalciferol is turned into by the liver, and part of the complex chain of Vitamin D metabolism.

As with the use of dexamethasone and other steroids, this isn't either a prevention or a cure, but does seem to be a helpful treatment which helps keep bad cases of COVID-19 from getting worse in many cases.

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Re: March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

Post by AnotherFairportfan » Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:06 pm

New coronavirus cases in the U.S. spiked to more than 52,000 on Tuesday, according to figures from Johns Hopkins University, marking the highest daily number in over a month.

The deeply worrying figure was recorded on the same day that President Donald Trump doubled down on his claim that the virus will “go away” thanks to what he called “herd mentality,” even if no viable vaccine is created.
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Re: March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

Post by Typeminer » Thu Sep 17, 2020 10:32 am

Yeah. Plenty of herd mentality, all right.

I've been reading an 1893 edition of The Diary of Samuel Pepys in the john since March. I'm up to August 1664. The plague's in Amsterdam. Not sure if Sam knows it's coming for London. (Say what? Why, yes. The old folks were from Ireland. :twisted: )

History of Germany in the 1930s seemed too close to the bone.
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Re: March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

Post by AnotherFairportfan » Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:01 pm

An internal memo from the Federal Emergency Management Agency obtained by ABC News on Wednesday night showed that the current national trend in new cases is only slightly down while the trend in new deaths is way up.

There were 261,204 new cases of COVID-19 confirmed in the United States during the period of Sept. 9-15, a 0.7% decrease from the previous week. Meanwhile, 5,906 coronavirus-related deaths were recorded during that same period, a 16.6% increase compared with the seven days prior, according to the FEMA memo.[/a]
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Re: March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

Post by jwhouk » Sat Sep 19, 2020 4:58 pm

As of Sept. 19, 2020, Okanogan County in Washington had a higher percentage of active cases to population (2,424/100k) than Pima County in Arizona (2,282/100k).

Pima County, which houses the University of Arizona in Tucson, has a population nearly 25 times that of Okanogan County.
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Re: March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

Post by lake_wrangler » Wed Sep 23, 2020 9:52 pm

Just seen the following text in a YouTube comment... copying and pasting here:

“This coronavirus is the strangest virus I’ve ever heard of. It’s very dangerous in the way it spreads. It is so mysterious the way it lurks in schools, but then dies at Home Depot. It can wreak havoc in churches; praying people are exceptionally vulnerable! Although it’s mind-boggling how it vanishes when people stand close together holding signs, destroying businesses, homes, property, monuments, etc. Yet, standing to watch a marathon or a concert triggers its wrath. It is sneaky. It can spread when buying clothes at Kohl’s but not at Target. It is non-alcoholic. It can’t spread when you are buying beer. It lives for two days on Amazon boxes, you must wait 48 hours to touch them but it can’t survive on Dunkin Donuts coffee cups, so enjoying a hot cup of joe is safe. It is the most curious thing, how it lives on basketballs, baseball bats and ballet bars, but dies on WWE ropes and Walmart shopping carts. It is spread by hair stylists, dog groomers, and dentists, but not by bank tellers, cashiers, and fast food workers. It’s so smart. It won’t bother the first 10 people gathered but it knows when the 11th person shows up, so be careful if that’s you.! It even knows what you want vs. what you need. If you want a massage or your nails done it is very actively on the prowl and not even a mask can stop it, but if you need a plumber, it is weak, and a mask will keep it away. It also seems to be most dangerous after 5:30pm so businesses must start to close before the virus comes out of hiding and wreaks havoc upon the populations. It also requires dine-in restaurants to have a shorter menu and you use real plates but only plastic forks and spoons.

Whoever heard of such a clever, sneaky virus?!?” - Anonymous

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Re: March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

Post by Atomic » Thu Sep 24, 2020 8:26 am

Numbers from "COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios
Updated Sept. 10, 2020"
, Table 1 (about half way down)

Link here,

Table 1
Scenario 5: Current Best Estimate
Infection Fatality Ratio

0-19 years: 0.00003
20-49 years: 0.0002
50-69 years: 0.005
70+ years: 0.054


This translates to CDC estimated survival rates by age:
0 to 19: 99.997%
20 to 49: 99.98%
50 to 69: 99.5%
70+: 94.6%
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Re: March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

Post by Atomic » Fri Sep 25, 2020 3:16 pm

In COVID-19 Restrictions Ruling, Judge Holds Pennsylvania Governor to the Constitution

TL;DR: From a Federal Court -- The plaintiffs argued that Pennsylvania’s numerical limits on gatherings—25 people for indoor gatherings, 250 for outdoor gatherings, and up to 75% of maximum occupancy for certain businesses or exempted events—violated the First Amendment.

They also argued that the stay-at-home order violated the Due Process Clause, and that the order shutting down so-called non-life-sustaining businesses violated the Due Process Clause and the Equal Protection Clause.

(The judge) agreed on all counts, (some exceptions about plaintiffs).
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Re: March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

Post by AnotherFairportfan » Fri Sep 25, 2020 11:56 pm

Proof Positive the world is not flat: If it were, cats would have pushed everything off the edge by now.

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Re: March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

Post by Atomic » Sat Sep 26, 2020 9:19 am

Good info site, but bulk numbers only it seems. What/where is the Rate per 1000 info? And how to interpret this data? What's been the Flu cases/deaths numbers and per 1000 rates?

There's lots of data but not a way to make comparisons easily.
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Re: March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

Post by jwhouk » Sat Sep 26, 2020 1:55 pm

ANSWER:
2,424 cases per 100,000 persons.

41.25 population to case ratio.

1,024 active cases in a population of 42,243.

QUESTION: what's the infection rate of Okanogan County, Washington?
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Re: March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

Post by AnotherFairportfan » Sun Sep 27, 2020 4:17 am

The Department of Health and Human Services is shelling out an astonishing $300 million for an ad campaign putting a positive spin on COVID-19, Politico reported. It’s reportedly the brainchild of a controversial HHS official who stepped aside last week after warning supporters of President Donald Trump to buy ammo before the election.

The “defeat despair” ad blitz reportedly plays down the dire consequences of the pandemic and touts Trump’s low-key efforts against COVID-19 even as the U.S. death toll rockets past 200,000, sources told Politico.
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Re: March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

Post by lake_wrangler » Sun Sep 27, 2020 9:46 pm

AnotherFairportfan wrote:
Sun Sep 27, 2020 4:17 am
The Department of Health and Human Services is shelling out an astonishing $300 million for an ad campaign putting a positive spin on COVID-19, Politico reported. It’s reportedly the brainchild of a controversial HHS official who stepped aside last week after warning supporters of President Donald Trump to buy ammo before the election.

The “defeat despair” ad blitz reportedly plays down the dire consequences of the pandemic and touts Trump’s low-key efforts against COVID-19 even as the U.S. death toll rockets past 200,000, sources told Politico.
Yeah... just looking at the quote, I can tell that the folks at Politico are definitely not biased... No, not the slightest bit... :roll:

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Re: March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

Post by AnotherFairportfan » Mon Sep 28, 2020 12:12 am

They're right; i bet if you lived a ways further south you wouldn't be happy about the expenditure, either.
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Re: March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

Post by AnotherFairportfan » Tue Sep 29, 2020 7:45 am

White House Told CDC: Come Up With More Evidence to Support School Reopenings
The White House put the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention under immense pressure to produce more evidence that suited the Trump administration’s agenda to send kids and teachers back to school in person before the election despite the raging coronavirus pandemic, The New York Times reports.

One member of Vice President Mike Pence’s staff claims that she was repeatedly asked to instruct the CDC to write more reports that showed a decline in virus cases among young people. The staff member, Olivia Troye, said she regretted being “complicit” in the effort, and left the White House in August. One unnamed former public-health official told the Times that, before a task force briefing in June, White House officials asked the CDC for supportive data in “a snazzy, easy-to-read document.”

Recent data shows that hospitalizations and deaths from COVID-1 have increased at a faster rate in children and teens than among the general public. One coronavirus tracking project has reported at least 30,000 cases in U.S. schools since the school year began.
The NYT article is behind a paywall; this is the summary at The Daily Beast
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Re: March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

Post by AnotherFairportfan » Wed Sep 30, 2020 8:39 pm

Michael Caputo’s $300 Million Coronavirus Public Relations Blitz Falls Apart
The Department of Health and Human Services’ outsized $300 million public health campaign to “defeat despair and inspire hope” during the pandemic is falling apart, Politico reports.

In the wake of medical leave taken by its main architect, HHS spokesperson Michael Caputo, celebrities and prominent medical experts have refused to participate, with the latter holding out for interviews in Anthony Fauci’s busy schedule.

Only Dennis Quaid, CeCe Winans and Hasidic singer Shulem Lemmer have so far agreed to participate. Sources with knowledge of the campaign also told Politico that Caputo’s assistant, Madeleine Hubbard, a 2020 college graduate with no public health experience, had repeatedly overstepped her role in the project. One official called the project “a boondoggle.”

“We’re in the middle of a pandemic… we could use that quarter of a billion dollars on buying PPE [personal protective equipment], not promoting PSAs with C-list celebrities.”
{The above is a summary from The Daily Beast. The original, longer and more detailed article is at Politico.
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Re: March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

Post by Dave » Fri Oct 02, 2020 10:27 am

  1. Decisions have consequences.
  2. Magical thinking has its limits. As Old Lodge Skins said, "Well, sometimes the magic works. Sometimes it doesn't."
  3. We're all in this together. Viruses don't give a damn about anyone's political affiliation.

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Re: March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

Post by Atomic » Fri Oct 02, 2020 4:46 pm

A comparison to previous pandemics from IEEE Spectrum:

Pandemic Memories and Mortalities
Though many of us lived through the flu pandemics of 1957 and 1968, almost nobody can dredge up personal memories of those times. And that's interesting.
...

Yet it is remarkable that these more virulent pandemics had such evanescent economic consequences. The United Nations’ World Economic and Social Surveys from the late 1950s contain no references to a pandemic or a virus. Nor did the pandemics leave any deep, traumatic traces in memories. Even if one very conservatively assumes that lasting memories start only at 10 years of age, then 350 million of the people who are alive today ought to remember the three previous pandemics, and a billion people ought to remember the last two.
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Re: March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

Post by jwhouk » Fri Oct 02, 2020 8:48 pm

Cases number 2,541 and 2,542 in Washington DC have been confirmed within the last 24 hours.




...insert snarky comment here.
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Re: March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

Post by Warrl » Sat Oct 03, 2020 12:30 pm

Consider that the case fatality rate of businesses "temporarily" closing due to the pandemic and government-ordered shutdowns is in the general area of 50%...

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