March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

[lake_wrangler]

Some good news, in the sense that tiger fur is much more common than tiger attacks:

Antibody Testing: Proves We've Been Had!

Reading the comments, then following a link, then another... I ended up at the Genesius Times website, who dub themselves "THE MOST RELIABLE SOURCE OF FAKE NEWS ON THE PLANET", with article titles such as:

• BREAKING: Skydiver who forgot parachute dies from coronavirus
• BREAKING: Charlie Sheen tests positive for every disease except coronavirus
• POLL: Most people unimpressed with their 30-day free trial of Communism
• BREAKING: Jeffrey Epstein has died from coronavirus months after committing suicide
• Newsom baffled a state that encourages illegal immigration isn’t obeying his ‘stay at home’ order

But these are even better (still from the same site, and still linking them directly, for when they won't be on their front page anymore...)

• CDC: ‘Coronavirus won’t last much longer because it was made in China’
• CDC: Current outbreak of stupidity may be worse than the outbreak of coronavirus
• GT’s Definitive Guide to Panicking During the Coronavirus Pandemic
• Experts ‘pretty sure’ they got it right this time

I particularly like these two quotes from the last "article" I linked:

“It appears that we were wrong about every one of our 18 previous estimates,” Fauci said at the daily press conference. “But we’re pretty sure we got it right this time.”

and

“So, basically we were wrong about everything. But you should totally trust us next time because, hey, we’re the experts!” Fauci added.

[lake_wrangler]

As always, Garbage In, Garbage Out.

Counterpoint to the CQ Doesn't Work study.

Summary: the media have been pooh-poohing a number of previous reports because they weren't proper controlled clinical studies of a representative population, and they did agree with President Trump. The same media are loudly touting this study because at first glance it disagrees with President Trump - even though it has ALL the same flaws as the previous reports, and even though the study's actual conclusion is "we need a proper controlled clinical study of a representative population".

Why am I not surprised...

[Atomic]

I'm reminded of a section in the book "Why We Get Fat" by Gary Taubes. He reviews and discusses the history of obiesiety and various investigations throughout the years on what to do about it. It turns out that since the 1500s or so in European history, there has long been a list of fattening foods and slimming foods. Eat more of this and gain weight, eat that instead and lose it. Being sedentary vs active was also a part, but not the whole, of the situation. In modern terms, the summary was Fat Good, Carbs (to excess) Bad.

"Jack Spratt would eat no fat, his wife would eat no lean." The joke was Jack was fat, not his wife.

Anyway, the leaders in organizing this research and applying it were the Austrian medical community by the 1920/30s. Unfortunately, a certain Austrian Corporal rose to political power in that era and by the 1940s had severely blemished the good name of all this Austrian, much less German. Consequently, with guilt by association, that centuries deep body of research and effective treatment was discredited.

And then, in the 1950s, General, now President, Dwight D. Eisenhower had a heart attack. This very public event brought discussions on the Good 'ol Kansas boy and all that prime beef he'd eaten growing up. Note that he was 5'10" tall and had a whip-thing "Athletic" build his whole life. Well, obviously, went the medical narrative, it must be all that fatty meat he grew up eating. Fat Bad! Austrians Bad! Fat just like Austrians! Bad!

Never mind he'd been a 4 pack a day smoker for much of his previous 60+ years.

The point is that people tend to jump to conclusions often in a defensive manner, because the conclusion justifies and validates whatever preconception or belief structure that they have in place. No evidence will persuade someone who doesn't believe in evidence, no logic will ever persuade someone who doesn't believe in logic. You cannot reason someone out of a emotionally based position. And that's just the way it is.

Note for example, the recent "We need to get out and work!" move and the "You're all going to die/kill us all!" replies. This is full up defense at both ends. In debate, it's called "Removing the Middle" - "You're either a communist or a pedophile -- which is it?" Any attempt at finding a middle means you betray both sides - quelle horror!

Dispassionate does not mean apathetic. It's about not letting your feelings run away with you. I'm very happy to see my fellow Wapsonians follow, post, and comment on these issues without bringing any excessive or distracting political stuff. Yes, it's out there, and yes, it's important. But it's good to see people stay on point and keep to it.

I'll put my soap box away now. Thank you for your words and thoughts.

[jwhouk]

The problem is, we've seen this movie before - and the way it ended last time resulted in tons of dead people.


(See "Spanish flu of 1919" for details.)

[Alkarii]

I'm more inclined to think the hard numbers from the antibody testing has some merit to it, and more of it needs to be done so we can see what it can tell us.

Part of the issue is that there people who never show symptoms yet develop the antibodies, or get a very mild case and don't get tested because they mistake it for another illness and recover on their own. So I'd say it's likely that we won't know how many people actually caught it over the course of this outbreak until after a few months after it's finally behind us.

[Dave]

The problem is, we've seen this movie before - and the way it ended last time resulted in tons of dead people.

Yes. The situation in Denver back in fall of 1918 is disturbingly similar to what is occurring today in quite a few states.

Denver "reopened" too early, had a huge upsurge in flu cases, had to lock down again a few weeks later, and a lot of people died.

I hope that people look at the lessons of history this time around.

[Atomic]

Context is Everything

Source Text Transcript

When Anderson Cooper interviewed FDA Commissioner Dr. Stephen Hahn about Trump's remarks, he was visibly taken aback when Hahn defended the president's questions.

"So I think the data that were presented at the press conference today were really important in terms of what kills the virus, and I believe the president was asking a question that many Americans are asking, which is, 'okay, this is what kills the virus, it's a physical agent, in this case UV light. How could that be applied to kill the virus, for example, in a human being?' We have plenty of examples in medicine where light therapy has been used for treatment of certain diseases," Hahn said.

"So it's a natural question that I as a doctor would have expected to hear from someone as a natural extension of the data that were presented," the FDA commissioner added.

Emphasis added.

Edit - added: Viewpoint summary

[lake_wrangler]

As they say: any text, taken out of context, is simply a pretext.


Meanwhile, the province of Québec has recently (as of last weekend, I think) passed the 1000 COVID-19 related deaths landmark, making it the first Canadian province to do so. Of those, something like 800 or 900 are among older folks. Montréal is still in the lead in the number of deaths in the province.

This website (Radio-Canada, the national broadcaster) has an interesting graph, on the progression of the disease, for various countries. If you check the # per 100 000 people box, it makes quite the difference...

The government of Québec is talking about the possibility of gradually reopening some businesses and schools, so as to avoid a whole bunch of infections in September, when a whole bunch of people all get together again, and bring it back home to their family. Of course, Montréal schools will remain closed, for now.


I just called my dad, tonight. He is doing well. Apparently, there has not been a single case of COVID-19 in the residence he lives in. They allow the old folks to walk around the building, each day. He says he circled the building twelve times, today, for an equivalent distance of about 3 km (1.86 mi). He says, he will try to add one more turn around the building, tomorrow.

[jwhouk]

Even if we do not have another reported case, nor a reported death, this will have been the worst week for COVID-19 in Arizona.

Despite some really shoddy reporting (two times in the last 10 days new cases weren't reported), there have been 1,538 confirmed new cases of COVID in the state, and 97 new deaths.

The seven-day average (including last Saturday's 273 new cases/19 new deaths) is now 258.7 new cases per day and 16.6 new deaths per day.

Meanwhile, Governor Ducey's on the fence as to whether or not to "reopen" the state.

[TazManiac]

Here's some fun to be had, during this season of Pandemic, trundling about all hermetically sealed away from casual human interaction;

Spring & Hayfever.

It never used to bother me as a child, but the older I get I find I'm noticing a reaction every year to 'something' in the air.

I haven't narrowed it down, and the symptoms aren't debilitating it anything, but it's gotten_real_ fun traveling as an ' Esential' ( Marvel Studios is puting out a pre-pre-quel in the Fall...) and having Any kind of snuffel or cough or snort of snot...

Fun on so many levels.

[Alkarii]

What does Marvel have to do with being an essential worker...?

[jwhouk]

Essential to the economy of the State of California.

EDIT: as an update: Arizona's final totals for the week of April 19-25: 253.3 new cases per day, 14.9 new deaths per day.

[Atomic]

On the other hand....

Lockdown vs. Non-Lockdown 'Did Not Produce a Statistically Different Number of Deaths

Related:

Post Hoc vs. Propter Hoc

[jwhouk]

The Temperature Test will come into play this week. If high temps have an effect on viral spread, AZ's 100-degree spell will be the bellweather.

[TazManiac]

What does Marvel have to do with being an essential worker...?

I am an Essential. (!!!)

Marvel Studios is making a movie about us...

[TazManiac]

PS-

https://xkcd.com/2282/

[lake_wrangler]

I forget where I read this comment, but someone commented on an article and essentially said that while all this was true (there was a virus, it did kill people, and so on), it was also a test to see how much freedom we are willing to forego, if the government tells us "it's in our best interest"... so that in the future, they may just tell us "such and such is happening, you need to stay at home for three months"...

Essentially, a slippery slope towards ultimate government control over our lives.

I'm sure there are many other conspiracy theories, out there, with varying degrees of accuracy... (Like the one about the WHO encouraging continued lockdown, and watching various countries' economies collapsing with glee, so as to usher in... something or other, I forget...)

[Atomic]

Essentially, a slippery slope towards ultimate government control over our lives.

Self fulfilling prophecies are easy to generate.

- You ignored the threat, now we have to...
- You overstated the threat, now we have to...

The numbers don't lie / this time it's different / yes, but what about X / the models indicate / the models are poor / the models are poorly applied / the models don't apply.

There was a court case where a police widow sued a body armor company for not saving her husband's life in a shootout. He died on the operating table after a point blank shotgun blast to the chest crushed his rib cage.

Her suit failed. The court reasoned the standard was not perfection, the standard was the alternative. The pellets did not penetrate the vest. He lived long enough to get to surgery, which was not enough to save his life. The vest fulfilled its purpose, but its method, to absorb and spread the shock, was overwhelmed. This was not a flaw.

At some point you need to choose between perfection (vaccines for all now!) and the risks of life in public.

[Warrl]

At some point you need to choose between perfection (vaccines for all now!) and the risks of life in public.

While realizing that the lockdown is also killing people - but they are harder to identify and enumerate. At present I am pretty confident that the disease has killed more people than the lockdown, but that will not remain true indefinitely.

Look at it this way: we can reasonably attempt to predict a maximum number of deaths due to the disease with NO lockdown, and while it's not a small number, the current data suggests it's at most in low single digit percentages (and perhaps much lower than that). And obviously nobody would die to the lockdown. With a COMPLETE lockdown, though, we can also reasonably predict a maximum number of deaths due to the lockdown, and it's effectively 100%.

Obviously there's a balance point somewhere in between, where we get the lowest total of deaths with either cause - and as a first guess, it's way closer to no lockdown than to a complete lockdown.

[Atomic]

More possibly good news:

More than 1,300 at Trousdale Turner Correctional Center test positive for COVID-19 (A Tennessee prison)

TL;DR: Out of the 2,450 total tests, more than 1,300 staff and inmates tested positive. According to the state, analysis of the test results confirmed that 98% of those who tested positive are asymptomatic.