March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

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jwhouk
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Re: March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

Post by jwhouk »

We have our first death by COVID-19 in Arizona.

EDIT: that's the first since the first case was reported by an ASU student in late February. We've got 104 confirmed cases in the meantime.
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Re: March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

Post by Bookworm »

Dave wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 11:36 pm
Bookworm wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 9:58 pm 2) The '.1%' that people like to quote appears to ONLY be deaths directly related to the influenza virus. The real mortality index is because of viral pneumonia. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/season/fl ... 7-2018.htm

The death toll for at least 4 consecutive weeks was 10%. not 1%, not .1%. 10%. One in ten people with viral pneumonia died. The true meaning of the word 'decimation'.
Hmmm. I think you may be comparing two different types of numbers there... that is, they're percentages of different sorts of things.

As I read it, what they're saying is:
  • Approximately .1% of the people who were diagnosed with influenza, died.
  • For a period of several weeks, 10% or more of the total deaths recorded were ones which occurred in people diagnosed with influenza or pneumonia.
If I'm interpreting that correctly, then there isn't any conflict between these numbers, because they're measuring/quantifying entirely different things.

Lessee... if I chase through some CDC pages and end up at https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr ... 09-508.pdf (statistics for 2017) they say that there was a total of 2,813,503 deaths in that year, of which 55,672 are ascribed to "influenza and pneumonia". They also estimate 44,802,629 cases of influenza.

So, if their number-of-cases is anywhere near correct (that's roughly 1 person in 5 getting the flu that year, which seems reasonable), then it's impossible for influenza to have a 10% mortality rate (even if you throw in all of the cases of pneumonia in that number), because it would account for twice the number of people who actually died.

As I read it, about 2% of total deaths in 2017 were from influenza-and-pneumonia, when averaged across a whole year. However, influenza deaths are not evenly distributed... they tend to hit in waves during the outbreaks. I can well believe that during a flu pandemic, 10% of the total deaths in any given week might result from flu, even if the death-rate-per-case is under 1%, simply because so very many people are infected at once.
Well, that's part of my point. They keep trotting out one number, yet don't bother saying "We don't really know, because we don't have good information". Then they don't bother pointing out the _other_ number, (the P&I), because it doesn't lend itself to increased budgets. In other words, it's lies by statistics. That's why I keep pulling up the CDC's own page with the P&I.

A direct correlation would be "How many people who develop pneumonia from SARS-Cov-2 die vs influenza caused pneumonia." Then, "What percentage of people who we _know_ are infected with SARS-Cov-2 develop pneumonia vs influenza." Even there, it'd be massively skewed, because most people who are infected with influenza don't bother reporting it anywhere - not even to their doctor.
I'm a bit disturbed by the fact that he didn't (from what I could see in that article) try to disentangle the "most people are immune" effect that he believes in, from the "people aren't being infected in China because of the draconian isolation and lockdown" effect. The Chinese government has been trying very hard (a bit late perhaps) to break the chains of infection, by strictly isolating anyone who has or might have the virus. We simply don't know whether the people who "aren't coming down sick" now, are immune, or are simply being kept away from the virus. It makes a big difference, both to how soon the pandemic burns out, and how likely it is that it'll reawaken from the embers.
As it's just a short article, who knows what else he had to say. What I read into it was that he was expecting to see a much higher, and constant, infection rate spread (this would be especially with the Lunar New Year scattering). Instead, it started going downwards faster than the predicted timeline based on epidemiological forecasts.

He did point out the 2.2 infections per day, vs the 1.5 infections per three days for a quarantine. I don't know if he pulled it out of his hat, or that was the actual numbers he was working with.

Going back and looking at the article, one of the biggest examples he used, which is probably a VERY good microcosm of the world, was the Diamond Princess. One massive air handler, everyone coming into close contact with each other and the crew, the crew in active interaction with passengers - and yet only 20% developed infections. Wuhan, the center of the epidemic, only had a (known) 3% infection rate. To me, that does sound like herd immunity. Immunity to a disease doesn't mean that they're not being infected - it simply means that their body eliminates the infection before any symptoms at all can form. If large groups of people have the immunity, then it slows the ability of the virus to jump to vulnerable people.

If it's a genetic resistance, then different groupings will have different resistance levels.

Assuming that 20% rate holds, it means that during the quarantines, as you go out, you're enormously less likely to run across someone infected, because instead of hitting a 20 person grouping in a store, with 4 being potentially infected, you're going to hit 10, with 2 potentially infected. Of those potentials, the odds of both being infected is even lower. Remember, one of the potential risk points is not just person to person contact, but person to surface (wet) contact. That's where keeping people local helps.

This isn't great. I may end up working a lot of hours and making a lot of money, but it's short term gain money. I'm hoping that with the quarantine, after two weeks, the bulk of people infected will have finished expressing the illness. At THAT point, we'll know how bad it's going to get, because those will be more likely to stay away from people - as long as they have enough toilet paper to eat.
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Re: March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

Post by Atomic »

COVID-19 - Evidence Over Hysteria

Here's an article taking a deep dive into statistics and how to (or not to) interpret them based on the noisy data and the actual methodology of viral exposure and transmission. Regardless of the credibility of info trails from China and Italy due to politics and reporting methods, the data show things are generally getting over the hump on transmission and spread.

TL;DR - Lots of poor ways to view/report a complicated issue - things starting to approach the Get Worse/Gets Better point.
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Re: March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

Post by lake_wrangler »

Atomic wrote: Sun Mar 22, 2020 1:42 am COVID-19 - Evidence Over Hysteria
[...]
TL;DR - Lots of poor ways to view/report a complicated issue - things starting to approach the Get Worse/Gets Better point.
Thanks for the link. I haven't finished reading it yet, but it's already proving to be a far cry from the general media hysteria.
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Re: March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

Post by Atomic »

A follow up to the previous article which I had thought was written by a doctor or epidemiologist. Seems it came from a running Journalist blog who covered the issues.

Counterpoint here.

I take come issue with side by side comparisons of differently sourced data and complaining they don't agree. Well, that's part of the point. Yours to peruse and consider.
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Re: March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

Post by lake_wrangler »

Last Friday, a driver told us that he had read online of a transit garage in Toronto, where 170 drivers had been quarantined.


As of this morning, all schools in the province of Québec are now closed until May 1. All shopping centers are now closed (I don't know if that only means closed-in malls, or also open-air shopping centers, where each store had its own front doors to the street/parking lot). Restaurants with dining rooms are take-out and/or drive through only. Hair salons, beauty parlors, and other such establishments are now closed until further notice.

I feel very fortunate to be working where I am, with very little chance of getting shut down. Other people still need to get to work, and not everyone has a car.

Apparently, one person at my garage has tested positive for COVID-19, on the administrative side. Their last day at work was Friday, March 13. They're telling us that we shouldn't have to worry. They've already figured out who all might have come into contact with that person. Although through the grapevine, I have also heard of one driver who may have gotten infected. That, was not in the communiqué they gave us this morning.

Public transit still runs, but it's weird. On my run, which should normally be a full bus, I only had about 10 passengers, and not even all at once. Meanwhile, others at work have told me that people were packing it in, on one bus, while another bus of the same bus line was practically empty, right behind it, both waiting for their scheduled departure time at the subway station... That particular bus line runs every five minutes, at rush hour, so there was no reason to not take the time to go on the second bus instead of cramming in the first one.

People. They is weird. :roll:



Meanwhile, I guess I wasn't taking this thing seriously enough, so I figured I'd watch the movie Outbreak, on DVD, during my lunch break... (it's probably the third time I've watched it, since I bought it, however long ago that was...)
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Re: March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

Post by shadowinthelight »

We were going to shut down anyway for retooling for the 2021 model trucks but went ahead and closed two days earlier since there was a reported possible case on second shift. I wish I would have known before I showed up and the gate was closed.

Last night we went to Julie's office to pick up her other monitor and docking station to complete her setup so she can work from home. They were going to rotate who was in the office but now people will only be going in to take care of things like the mail.

Baxter is loving all the extra attention.
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Re: March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

Post by AnotherFairportfan »

Gainesville city schools were closed beginning last Monday {16 March} - originally for one week, now till the end of March at least.

I just saw that Virginia has joined some other states - can't recall which, though i think one was Florida - in keeping schools closed until the end of the academic year.

The cabinet shop where Steve and Helen work is still running with no sign of closing down ... though schools are the majority of their market - they work at full capacity through the summer, and go to heavy overtime and weekend work during the last month or so before the schools re-open.
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Re: March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

Post by jwhouk »

I have been in a weird situation here. I've been off of work since the 6th (since that was the last day before Spring Break). I somehow contracted the (regular) flu back then, and am pretty much just now fully recovered - though allergies have kicked my butt as of late.

The earliest projected date right now that schools could reopen is the 13th of April - but the AZ legislature has pretty much given the green light for districts to remain closed for the rest of the school year (which is right before Memorial Day for MPS).

As I sit here at just before 7 AM local, I'm only hearing quiet rumbling of occasional cars outside the perimeter of our park. Normally I'd be hearing tons of trucks and other very loud vehicles (if, of course, I was here; I'd be behind the wheel and driving students to school at this time normally).

Oh, and Arizona is up to 234 cases and two deaths - though there are two other deaths that could be filed under COVID-19: Darwin Award nomination...
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Re: March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

Post by Warrl »

Ya know, most of the articles I've read about the idiots who swallow fish-tank cleaner say that chloroquine phosphate is an additive in the cleaner.

I wonder what else is in that cleaner, and to what extent the various ingredients are contributing to the damage.
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Re: March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

Post by Alkarii »

Darwin Awarda are for people who remove themselves from the gene pool entirely, though.
There is no such thing as a science experiment gone wrong.
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Re: March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

Post by lake_wrangler »

I was surprised, and mildly amused, to find out, yesterday, that Dollarama stores are part of the essential services, up here.

What made no sense, though, was how the cashier had gloves on, would take stuff out of your basket to scan them, but was not allowed to deposit them in your bag... You had to take the items and bag them yourself. :roll: :?
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Re: March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

Post by jwhouk »

309 cases, 9 deaths in AZ. And we're not the epicenter of the whole thing.

A grocery store worker on the west side of Mesa tested positive for COVID.

They are saying that cases probably won't peak until sometime in April, and hospitalizations (read: deaths) won't until May.
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Re: March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

Post by lake_wrangler »

4757 cases in Canada, of which 2021 are in the province of Québec. Of those, 971 cases are in the city of Montréal.

55 deaths in Canada. of which 18 are in the province of Québec. Of those, 4 are in the city of Montréal.

Yeah. We're a hot spot, right now... :roll:

As of yesterday, Montréal has adopted a state of health/sanitary emergency. This will give them the power to take more draconian measures, if people don't respect the instructions given for social distancing, non essential travel banning, non essential business closures, etc.

Although they are not considering it yet, it could go all the way up to quarantining the island of Montréal itself, by blowing up the bri... err, I mean, shutting down the bridges to Montréal... yeah, that's the ticket...

That would be problematic for me, depending on how strict a closure that would end up being, seeing as I now live in Laval, the city right next to Montréal, connected by 7 bridges... :roll:
But they did say that if it came down to that, provisions might still be made for workers who come in from the North and South shores. We'll have to see.

Meanwhile, my employer is now deploying a reduced bus service as of Monday. Fortunately, everyone still keeps their job (for now), as well as their current pay. Until June 15, that is. After that, the agreement with the union runs out, and we'll have to see how the situation develops, to figure out what comes next for bus service and for the drivers.

Hopefully, things will have started to slow down, virus-wise, by then. Because I really can't see just how long they can force people to stay home from work... otherwise, the economy will tank, more people will get laid off, big businesses will hurt, small businesses may close down for good, small business owners may go bankrupt, the government will go broke.

In a twist of irony, the last ones to get laid off will be the ones writing the unemployment checks... :roll: :twisted: :P


People seem to be taking it in stride so far (as far as exterior appearances go). With the warmer weather, more people are going out for walks, bike rides, and so on. But not all of them are respecting the 2 meter distance rule... Don't mess it up for the rest of us, please!


As for me, I am thankful to still have work, and apart for a shortage of overtime, my salary will not take a hit, for now. I am in good health, and keeping up with people on the phone or on social media.
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Re: March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

Post by Warrl »

Meanwhile, my employer is now deploying a reduced bus service as of Monday. Fortunately, everyone still keeps their job (for now), as well as their current pay. Until June 15, that is. After that, the agreement with the union runs out, and we'll have to see how the situation develops, to figure out what comes next for bus service and for the drivers.
Things are looking VERY good so far for hydroxychloroquine+azithromycin. Both are long-approved medications with significant amounts in existence and significant production facilities already operating.

If the "Trump said it's good therefore it must not be good" crowd can shut up and let the scientists speak... instead of claiming that Trump is shutting up scientists while themselves silencing the scientists who say he listens to them... and of course if that or some other drug/combo currently looking promising turns out to be good, then there's an excellent chance that by June 15 the situation will be pretty much cleared up.
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Re: March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

Post by Dave »

Warrl wrote: Sat Mar 28, 2020 3:20 pm Things are looking VERY good so far for hydroxychloroquine+azithromycin. Both are long-approved medications with significant amounts in existence and significant production facilities already operating.
Could you provide some citations to the tests and trials you've seen? I haven't yet seen any cited (anywhere) which demonstrate that this combination actually reduces the death rate. Major trials seen to have only started a few days ago. The small French trial everybody's talking about has received a lot of criticism for faulty methodology, and as I recall this trial showed reduced vital load (surely a good thing) but didn't demonstrate a lower death rate.

Chloroquine was one of a number of drugs tested against the previous SARS virus a few years ago. One report I read indicated that it didn't work out well in practice... it had some action against SARS reproduction in a cell-culture environment but this didn't seem to extend to in-the-buddy treatment.

Sure be nice if it works out but I'm not about to bet my life that it will.
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Re: March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

Post by Atomic »

Some things to keep in mind when reading panic headlines -- bulk numbers alone are not necessarily the whole story, or even reflective of the full story.

- The United States now has more victims than Italy! Eeek!? Italy is 1/5 the population so consider the rate per 100,000 not the bulk numbers. Elephants are larger than ants! Eeek!

- China has no new virus victims! Maybe (probably not). Multiple sources claim they've either stopped testing or stopped reporting. Consider the authoritarian regime; they've had along history of suppressing bad news.

- China gave Italy stuff to help win the fight! Rather, they Sold Italy stuff early in the game and it got delivered. Rather a moral difference there. Plus, in other news, the COVID-19 test kits they "provided" have a 70-80% failure rate.

And so on.

My parents taught me to discern the truth by dividing the headline by the size of the type and number of explanation marks. The media doesn't Give you the news, it Sells you the news.

FWIW YMMV
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Re: March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

Post by Alkarii »

Yup. Just about everything Atomic said, I've been repeating. The US has a population of around 330 million people, and people are getting all political about how the US has more reported cases.

I think the US is in the top five countries for largest populations, and of those with more people, everyone already knows China lies about anything that would make them look bad to the rest of the world.

Not only that, but think about how many international airports we have, and how many people went through them since the virus mutated enough to be able to jump from person to person. Then you have to factor in connecting flights for some people on their way home. That's easily hundreds of opportunities for transmission per person who entered the country before showing symptoms. (At least, I think it could still be transmitted before then. I'm not a pathologist.)

I still don't see enough reason to buy over a hundred rolls of toilet paper, though.
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Re: March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

Post by lake_wrangler »

Alkarii wrote: Sun Mar 29, 2020 5:53 amI still don't see enough reason to buy over a hundred rolls of toilet paper, though.
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Re: March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

Post by Atomic »

About the 100 TP rolls...

One psychology type article commented on group behavior under stress. Given a personal but generic threat, people tend to bunker down with thinking toward individual survival and comfort. So - TP, dry/canned goods, and water go to the top of the list. Further, they see others doing the same (group reinforcement), which increases the perceived threat. Finally, that they act at all is an attempt to personally respond to a generic threat - "At least I did something!" It's also called Shopping Therapy.

This does not address the hoarders/resellers and their motivations, but those actions further add to appearances.

Which brings us back to Men in Black: "A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky dangerous animals and you know it!"
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