March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

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Dave
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Re: March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

Post by Dave » Fri Oct 16, 2020 4:35 pm

lake_wrangler wrote:
Fri Oct 16, 2020 9:31 am
I'd like to see a graph that would not only includes "cases", but hospitalization, critical care hospitalization, and deaths. But I know that won't happen.
You may not see a fully-fleshed-out graph for whole countries or even states/provinces, because not everybody reports complete data like this, and not every location which reports data does so in the same way. So, a "lumped" data display might not be at all meaningful.

However, these sorts of numbers/graphs are available for some areas, which you might (or might not) be willing to accept as reasonable exemplars. That is to say, if a certain region has X number of cases, Y hospitalizations, and Z ICU patients, and Q deaths (all for COVID-19 of course) you could calculate the percentages and relationships. Look at a dozen sets of data from around the country, compute and average-out the percentages, and that's probably a good set of numbers to use for the purpose of extrapolating to country-wide numbers.

I'll get you started with one such - my own county.

https://www.sccgov.org/sites/covid19/Pa ... board.aspx

This page has links to a lot of graphs, including the number of new admissions per day, number of patients hospitalized (total, ICU, and non-ICU), and so forth. I think it provides just the sort of detail you're asking for.

The raw data which underlies these charts can be downloaded from https://data.sccgov.org/browse?category=COVID-19

I don't know for sure, but I suspect that similar data is probably available from a bunch of other local jurisdictions in the United States, and probably Canada as well.

So, if you want answers... the data is out there. It won't be perfect or entirely complete, but it should be good enough for study and reasoned discussion.

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Re: March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

Post by lake_wrangler » Sat Oct 17, 2020 5:55 am

WHO Official Warns Against Lockdowns ‘As The Primary Means Of Control’ For Coronavirus
In an interview with The Spectator’s Andrew Neil, Dr. David Nabarro explained, “We in the World Health Organization do not advocate lockdowns as the primary means of control of this virus.”

“The only time we believe that a lockdown is justified, is to buy you time to reorganize, regroup, rebalance your resources, protect your health workers who are exhausted, but by and large, we’d rather not do it,” he said.

[...]

“We really do appeal to all world leaders, stop using lockdown as your primary control method. Develop better systems for doing it. Work together, and learn from each other, but remember, lockdowns just have one consequence that you must never ever belittle, and that is making poor people an awful lot poorer.”
Of course, just what are "better systems" is another question in and of itself...



'Irreparable damage': Over 6,000 scientists sign petition calling for end of coronavirus lockdowns

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Re: March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

Post by lake_wrangler » Sat Oct 17, 2020 6:24 am

Dave wrote:
Fri Oct 16, 2020 4:35 pm
lake_wrangler wrote:
Fri Oct 16, 2020 9:31 am
I'd like to see a graph that would not only includes "cases", but hospitalization, critical care hospitalization, and deaths. But I know that won't happen.
You may not see a fully-fleshed-out graph for whole countries or even states/provinces, because not everybody reports complete data like this, and not every location which reports data does so in the same way. So, a "lumped" data display might not be at all meaningful.

However, these sorts of numbers/graphs are available for some areas, which you might (or might not) be willing to accept as reasonable exemplars. That is to say, if a certain region has X number of cases, Y hospitalizations, and Z ICU patients, and Q deaths (all for COVID-19 of course) you could calculate the percentages and relationships. Look at a dozen sets of data from around the country, compute and average-out the percentages, and that's probably a good set of numbers to use for the purpose of extrapolating to country-wide numbers.

I'll get you started with one such - my own county.

https://www.sccgov.org/sites/covid19/Pa ... board.aspx

This page has links to a lot of graphs, including the number of new admissions per day, number of patients hospitalized (total, ICU, and non-ICU), and so forth. I think it provides just the sort of detail you're asking for.

The raw data which underlies these charts can be downloaded from https://data.sccgov.org/browse?category=COVID-19

I don't know for sure, but I suspect that similar data is probably available from a bunch of other local jurisdictions in the United States, and probably Canada as well.

So, if you want answers... the data is out there. It won't be perfect or entirely complete, but it should be good enough for study and reasoned discussion.
Well, I did link, early on in this thread, the Covid tracker for Radio-Canada, the French speaking arm of the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation, which indeed does have that information...
Here it is again, for your convenience: https://ici.radio-canada.ca/info/2020/c ... ex-en.html
Oddly enough, the English CBC's tracker, which I would have thought would be the same as the French Radio-Canada, seeing as they are the two faces of the same national broadcaster, is actually much more boring in presentation... https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/coronavirustracker/

So I guess I misspoke, there... It's not that those graphs don't exist, as much as they don't make the news, and fear-mongering, power-hungry politicians who seem to thrive on beating down on their population don't seem to care that they exist, focusing instead on the number of new "cases" per day to justify the new lockdowns. (Yes, I'm painting a rather broad brush of politicians, and I'm sure there are many who don't actually want to promote fear or grab power for themselves... I'm guessing that, however, those who don't, but still order lockdowns are perhaps afraid of being accused of not responding quickly or strongly enough, when compared to others, so the result is still similar...)


All I can say is that from the start, I never liked the media coverage of this pandemic, and I think the lockdowns are a bad idea to keep going on for a long time. (What happened to "two weeks, to flatten the curve"?)
People are losing their jobs due to lockdowns, governments are spiraling ever faster into debt, and creating a whole new set of government-dependant people while ruining the economy. There has to be a better way! I just wish I knew what it was...

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Re: March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

Post by lake_wrangler » Sat Oct 17, 2020 7:23 am


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Re: March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

Post by Warrl » Sat Oct 17, 2020 5:58 pm

All I can say is that from the start, I never liked the media coverage of this pandemic, and I think the lockdowns are a bad idea to keep going on for a long time. (What happened to "two weeks, to flatten the curve"?)
People are losing their jobs due to lockdowns, governments are spiraling ever faster into debt, and creating a whole new set of government-dependant people while ruining the economy. There has to be a better way! I just wish I knew what it was...
The case fatality rate for people who are known to have gotten the disease or PRESUMED to have died from the disease is well under 1% now.

The case fatality rate for businesses that are ordered to temporarily close due to the lockdowns is in excess of 50%.

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Re: March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

Post by Atomic » Sat Oct 17, 2020 6:39 pm

Indeed! Is the cure worse than the disease? This is a "compared to what" situation -- the loss of lives vs the loss of livelihoods. There is a limit to "If it just saves one life, then..." type of thinking. And that limit should be open for debate.
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Re: March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

Post by Dave » Sat Oct 17, 2020 7:33 pm

lake_wrangler wrote:
Sat Oct 17, 2020 6:24 am
All I can say is that from the start, I never liked the media coverage of this pandemic, and I think the lockdowns are a bad idea to keep going on for a long time. (What happened to "two weeks, to flatten the curve"?)
There have been areas which have used short, strict lockdowns quite successfully, knocking down the R-rate and choking off the infections.

You can't just return immediately to normal, unfortunately, or the exponential increase in infections will come back as soon as any new cases are introduced to the area.

The most effective way of having that not happen, is to consistently apply the sorts of mitigations that have been widely urged and recommended:. wear masks so you don't spread the infection if you're pre- or symptomatic, respect social distancing, limit your contacts, wash hands and clean/disinfect regularly, avoid crowded situations and unsafe behaviors ( "drinking in a bar or at a party" counts twice), test suspected cases quickly, contact-trace, and self-isolate if you've been exposed.

If people are willing to do these things consistently, then experience shows we have a good chance of holding the infection rate down to low levels without requiring long-term lockdowns. It's not "like it was before" but I believe it's something we can sustain until vaccine are widely available.

If people can't or aren't willing to do these things (for whatever reason) then infection rates are going to climb and lots of people are going to die unnecessarily... and that puts the pressure on the authorities to mandate lockdowns again because they have no other way to protect the vulnerable.

Lemme ask a question. If someone "stands on their rights" and "asserts their liberties" and refuses to apply mitigations that they've been asked to do (say, the one about not coming into a grocery store without a mask), and it turns out that they're COVID-19-positive and contagious, and they expose and infect somebody (say, the lady running the checkout stand that day), and that other person ends up spending a week in Intensive Care and racks up $50k in medical bills (or dies)...

... then what is the proper assignment of responsibility to the first person?

Should they be held liable at a civil level... a tort? Sued for financial damages?

Should they be charged with negligent homicide (involuntary manslaughter), or reckless endangerment, or battery?

There's a legal standard for responsibility often applied: "knew, or should have known". How does that apply (or not apply) in situations like the current one?

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Re: March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

Post by jwhouk » Sat Oct 17, 2020 8:53 pm

And in our weekly update:

Pima County, the county that houses the city of Tucson and the main campus of the University of Arizona, continues to have a lower number of cases per 100,000 (2,503) than Okanogan County in Washington (2,630 per 100k).

Meanwhile, my ZIP code has crossed over the 2,500 cases barrier. This puts it at 4,108 cases per 100k.
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Re: March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

Post by AnotherFairportfan » Sun Oct 18, 2020 6:17 pm

More than 1,000 current and former officers of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention signed a letter criticizing the federal government’s response to the coronavirus crisis and demanding “our nation’s leaders to allow CDC to resume its indispensable role.”

The signees were current and former members of the Epidemic Intelligence Service, sometimes known as “disease detectives.” Founded nearly 70 years ago, the EIS is a two-year postdoctoral program for epidemiologists to get hands-on experience in the field.

“The absence of national leadership on COVID-19 is unprecedented and dangerous,” the letter said. “The U.S. epidemic is sustained by deadly chains of transmission that crisscross the entire country. Yet states and territories have been left to invent their own differing systems for defining, diagnosing and reporting cases of this highly contagious disease. Inconsistent contact tracing efforts are confined within each state’s borders — while coronavirus infections sadly are not. Such chaos is what CDC customarily avoided by its long history of collaboration with state and local health authorities in developing national systems for disease surveillance and coordinated control.”

The Trump administration has been criticized for sidelining the CDC. It reportedly went so far as to interfere in the agency’s reports as it has largely failed in its response to the virus’s spread.
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Re: March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

Post by lake_wrangler » Sun Oct 18, 2020 10:57 pm

It's easy to criticize, it's harder to come up with a better plan... To say that there is no national leadership on COVID-19 is foolish and absolutely false. One may not agree with what President Trump has done, but one cannot say there is no leadership or that he's doing nothing.

To complain about "leaving the States to fend for themselves" simply ignores the fact that there is no one-size-fits-all solution, for a country as large as the United States. Seeing as each State has different types of populations (rural vs. cities, etc), different mentalities, and so on, it makes sense that a more localized response would be better, as the State governments would have a better understanding of its citizens than the federal government would. We have done the same thing in Canada, where some decisions have been made at the federal level, but mostly each province has the autonomy to make its own decisions. That just makes sense.

But contrary to Canada, at least President Trump closed the borders early, and has not tried to use the pandemic as an excuse for a power-grab (our own Prime Minister Justin Trudeau refused to close the borders and flights from China for some time, and even went as far as to try to pass a law that would give him the power to make any decision he wanted, without having to have it voted on by parliament! Fortunately, that was voted down...)

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Re: March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

Post by Warrl » Mon Oct 19, 2020 12:28 am

at least President Trump closed the borders early,
And was viciously criticized for doing so, by mostly the same folks who are now saying that he did nothing.

As for the CDC, by my count they have now reversed themselves at least three times on whether or not wearing masks is worthwhile. And their initial position made no sense to me: that even medical-grade masks are a waste of effort and it's important to reserve them for medical staff (if they're a waste of effort, what do the medical staff need them for?). Similarly, any relevant opinion you want to hear has been stated by Dr. Fauci as the expert position of the day. So it frankly is almost impossible to NOT follow the experts' advice. Short of seeking out and French-kissing people known to have the virus.

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Re: March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

Post by Atomic » Mon Oct 19, 2020 1:22 am

Exactly. The Monday morning quarterbacks are out in full force decrying the insufficient preemptive actions which themselves were ridiculed at the time. Then of course they curse those who followed the best information available from the best sources at the time as "they should have known better."

My mother told me a story as a child containing the following line: "There are those who lose all respect for the lion, unless upon meeting one, they are instantly devoured. You can't please some people."

This applies here.
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Re: March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

Post by lake_wrangler » Mon Oct 19, 2020 11:21 am

Doctors speak out on misinformation surrounding the coronavirus

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Re: March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

Post by jwhouk » Mon Oct 19, 2020 7:03 pm

Notice they aren't wearing masks...
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Re: March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

Post by AnotherFairportfan » Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:14 pm

I also notice they're on OAN...
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Re: March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

Post by lake_wrangler » Mon Oct 19, 2020 11:22 pm

AnotherFairportfan wrote:
Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:14 pm
I also notice they're on OAN...
And what difference exactly would that make? Does the fact that they are said to be a far-right outfit, according to Wikipedia, make the statements of the various doctors on the video less factual?

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Re: March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

Post by AnotherFairportfan » Tue Oct 20, 2020 4:33 am

lake_wrangler wrote:
Mon Oct 19, 2020 11:22 pm
AnotherFairportfan wrote:
Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:14 pm
I also notice they're on OAN...
And what difference exactly would that make? Does the fact that they are said to be a far-right outfit, according to Wikipedia, make the statements of the various doctors on the video less factual?
No - but, for instance, when OAN talks about climate change their scientist guests all somehow seem to be from the minority - a small minority - of scientists who are on the "it's not real" side, so my assumption is that anything they present has been carefully curated to support their pre-determined conclusion.

Note that i refrained from putting scare quotes on the word "scientists".

==========================

I also note that the video has been removed for violating YouTube's ToS...
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Re: March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

Post by Atomic » Tue Oct 20, 2020 8:08 am

Sadly, many supposedly neutral platforms have taken to shooting messengers instead of conveying messages and letting the readers/viewers decide.

Even if the Hitler News Network had a special on "Stalin - The Man, the Myth," it could be worth watching just to see what viewpoints were expressed and revealed, not to mention what facts are discovered or mangled.
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Re: March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

Post by Typeminer » Tue Oct 20, 2020 9:22 am

lake_wrangler wrote:
Sun Oct 18, 2020 10:57 pm
It's easy to criticize, it's harder to come up with a better plan... To say that there is no national leadership on COVID-19 is foolish and absolutely false. One may not agree with what President Trump has done, but one cannot say there is no leadership or that he's doing nothing.
There were well established plans for response to an epidemic in place, had been for a long time. Trump dismantled it all earlier in his administration, and then undercut the experts who should have been leading the response.

The guy who burned all the fire hoses can't claim that no one else could have been better prepared to fight a fire.
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Re: March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

Post by Warrl » Tue Oct 20, 2020 2:12 pm

AnotherFairportfan wrote:
Tue Oct 20, 2020 4:33 am
when OAN talks about climate change their scientist guests all somehow seem to be from the minority - a small minority - of scientists who are on the "it's not real" side
A small minority indeed - the alternative sides of that argument are actually "Climate change is real and it's a crisis!" versus "Climate change is real and has been happening continuously for 4 billion years, and what's been happening lately doesn't appear to be unusual in any way."

At least the first half of the latter position is definitely correct.

As for the latter half...

Recently, in an area of Antarctica where there are no penguins because it's too far from the edge of the ice sheet, they found several layers of penguin fossils. That area has been penguin habitat at least three times in the last 5,000 years. Penguins most recently abandoned the site about 800 years ago, or roughly 200 years after the peak of the medieval warm period. https://www.ctvnews.ca/sci-tech/snow-me ... -1.5146665

The REAL minority view is "there's a CO2 crisis - the atmospheric CO2 level is dangerously low". Arguments can be made for this position. https://humanevents.com/2014/03/24/the- ... ously-low/

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