March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

All off topic conversation held here. Have fun and play nice. =)

Moderators: Bookworm, starkruzr, MrFireDragon, PrettyPrincess, Wapsi

Post Reply
User avatar
lake_wrangler
Posts: 3787
Joined: Sun Aug 05, 2012 8:16 am
Location: Montréal, Québec, Canada

Re: March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

Post by lake_wrangler » Thu May 21, 2020 6:57 pm

Other sights also amuse me:

People walking around with a mask on... below their nose... :roll:
(I even had a passenger, yesterday, come in the bus with a mask on, with a hole in the mask just below the nose, to facilitate breathing! :shock: )
People, alone in their car, driving with the windows closed and wearing a mask... :?

Less amusing, and more annoying:

Shortly after the lockdown and social distancing started, our workplace started putting stickers in place, reminding us to keep 2 meters apart from each other... but this week, a full two months after everything started, they started making part of the corridor into a one-way passage... :roll:

Last week, or perhaps two weeks ago, they used yellow ("danger") tape to block every second urinal and every second faucet on the 5-faucet sink in the bathroom... :roll: :roll: :roll:

User avatar
lake_wrangler
Posts: 3787
Joined: Sun Aug 05, 2012 8:16 am
Location: Montréal, Québec, Canada

Re: March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

Post by lake_wrangler » Thu May 21, 2020 7:03 pm

Meanwhile, even though the province of Québec is the province with the largest number of cases and deaths related to Covid-19, we are starting to open things up...

Construction workers have been back to work for a week and a half, now ( :roll: Yay... :roll: )

There are more people out and about. Highway traffic is almost back to pre-pandemic levels ( :roll: :roll: Double Yay... :roll: :roll: )

A number of stores will be opening up next week. Restaurants are still doing take-out only, for now. Movie theaters are not opening back up, yet...

Elementary schools are starting to open up, but attendance is not mandatory. But if you choose to not send your kids to school yet, you need to follow certain guidelines in order to have your kid(s) keep up with the curriculum.

User avatar
lake_wrangler
Posts: 3787
Joined: Sun Aug 05, 2012 8:16 am
Location: Montréal, Québec, Canada

Re: March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

Post by lake_wrangler » Sat May 23, 2020 2:15 pm

Here are two articles from Dennis Prager, a "nationally syndicated radio talk-show host and columnist. His latest book, published by Regnery in May 2019, is "The Rational Bible," a commentary on the book of Genesis. His film, "No Safe Spaces," came to theaters fall 2019. He is the founder of Prager University and may be contacted at dennisprager.com."



The Worldwide Lockdown May Be the Greatest Mistake in History

and

Our Dress Rehearsal for a Police State




Incidentally, both Sweden and Taiwan have refused to order a lockdown of its population, and they're not particularly paying the price for it, either:

Cases per 100 000 population :
Sweden, 328.62 (above France, at 279.55, but below the UK, at 378.8)
Taiwan, 1.85

These statistics were listed on Radio-Canada's continuously updated Covid-19 page
(Radio-Canada is the French branch of the State broadcaster in Canada.)

User avatar
jwhouk
Posts: 5856
Joined: Wed Aug 01, 2012 7:58 am
Location: The Valley of the Sun, Arizona
Contact:

Re: March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

Post by jwhouk » Sat May 23, 2020 8:57 pm

I had posted elsewhere (probably not here, it's starting to get foggy as to exact numbers) about "targets" in regards to COVID cases in Arizona.

My argument was, essentially, to look back at three weeks of data, then look forward and project what numbers would be better or worse.

Since I looked at the numbers on May 7th, this is what they showed:
  • From April 16 through May 6, we had 5,745 new cases, and 284 new confirmed deaths in the state (per Bing's COVID-19 tracker).
  • Since May 6, we have had 5,608 new confirmed cases - which is lower, and you'd have to think that's a good thing.
Only a couple of problems:
  • We also had 337 new confirmed deaths in that time.
  • The data since May 6th is only for 16 days. We still have five more days until we've reached the same 21 day stretch. Arizona would need to average under 27 new cases per day for the next five days to stay under 5,745 new cases over 3 weeks.
  • There hasn't been a five-day stretch of fewer than 27 cases since March 22, which was (ironically) the date of the first recorded death by COVID-19 in the state.
The trend line isn't "bending" or "flattening". It's still rising.
"Character is what you are in the dark." - D.L. Moody
"You should never run from the voices in your head. That's how you give them power." - Jin

User avatar
AnotherFairportfan
Posts: 5844
Joined: Thu May 01, 2014 2:53 pm

Re: March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

Post by AnotherFairportfan » Sun May 24, 2020 5:07 am

lake_wrangler wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 6:57 pm
Last week, or perhaps two weeks ago, they used yellow ("danger") tape to block every second urinal and every second faucet on the 5-faucet sink in the bathroom... :roll: :roll: :roll:
Kroger has shut down every other self-scan checkout position.
Proof Positive the world is not flat: If it were, cats would have pushed everything off the edge by now.

User avatar
Atomic
Posts: 2679
Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2012 12:39 am
Location: Central PA
Contact:

Re: March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

Post by Atomic » Mon May 25, 2020 11:14 am

The CDC's New 'Best Estimate' Implies a COVID-19 Infection Fatality Rate Below 0.3%

CDC Source article

TL;DR: The original model estimates were waaaay pessimistic. Newest numbers suggest COVID-19 is a bit harsher than an average flu season. As usual, the elderly and infirm are hardest hit.
Don't let other peoples limitations become your constraints!

My Deviant Art scribbles
The Atomic Guide to Basic GIMP Stuff

User avatar
Dave
Posts: 7025
Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2012 5:58 pm
Location: Mountain View, CA, USA

Re: March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

Post by Dave » Mon May 25, 2020 1:16 pm

Atomic wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 11:14 am
TL;DR: The original model estimates were waaaay pessimistic. Newest numbers suggest COVID-19 is a bit harsher than an average flu season. As usual, the elderly and infirm are hardest hit.
That definitely is good news, and comforting for those who find they've been infected or are at elevated risk.

It's still no joke in absolute numbers, of course... "death rate if symptomatic" numbers are only part of the equation. The lack of any pre-existing immunities in the population, and the high transmissibility means that the number of people likely to be infected over the next year or so could be a lot higher than is the case with a seasonal flu.

The fact that the U.S. is rapidly approaching 100,000 deaths after only a few months (very roughly twice a usual year's toll from seasonal flu), when antibody tests seem to show that less than 10% of the population has had the bug... those original projections of 1-2 million deaths are not at all outlandish.

So, quite a bit worse (in absolute numbers of lives at risk) than a typical or even bad seasonal flu year, but looking less catastrophic for the U.S. then the Kansas ("Spanish") flu pandemic a century ago.

Alkarii
Posts: 1504
Joined: Sun Nov 09, 2014 3:02 pm

Re: March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

Post by Alkarii » Tue May 26, 2020 6:10 pm

I'm seeing people say that because areas that ended lockdowns saw a sudden spike in cases just a couple days later is proof that the lockdowns were working... except that the virus has a two week incubation period, meaning these people got it while the lockdowns were in effect.
There is no such thing as a science experiment gone wrong.

User avatar
Dave
Posts: 7025
Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2012 5:58 pm
Location: Mountain View, CA, USA

Re: March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

Post by Dave » Tue May 26, 2020 6:41 pm

Alkarii wrote:
Tue May 26, 2020 6:10 pm
I'm seeing people say that because areas that ended lockdowns saw a sudden spike in cases just a couple days later is proof that the lockdowns were working... except that the virus has a two week incubation period, meaning these people got it while the lockdowns were in effect.
Incubation period prior to first symptoms seems to be anywhere from 2-3 days up to 2 weeks at the outside. The CDC's page on clinical guidance (here) states that 4-5 days seems to be the median (that is, half of those infected who are going to develop symptoms, will have done so by this point by this point). After 11 days, it's up to 97%.

There's good evidence that those infected can be contagious before they develop obvious symptoms... that's one of the things that helps make this particular virus an efficient "spreader".

All that being said, I agree that claiming that a spike in cases a day or two after the end-of-lockdown is due to the lockdown ending wouldn't be realistic. A week, though, would be plenty of time for at least one generation of newly-infected to become symptomatic, and you might be seeing the beginning of a second generation. Since this virus is highly transmissible (one infected person can pass it on to literally dozens of others).

Due to the fact that people often don't go to a doctor for the first few days of an illness, and the fact that reporting takes time, it's better to look at a longer-term average to see the effect of changes in social distancing and other restrictions.

User avatar
Atomic
Posts: 2679
Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2012 12:39 am
Location: Central PA
Contact:

Re: March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

Post by Atomic » Wed May 27, 2020 2:39 am

Keep in mind also that testing results come out in clusters covering an unknown amount of time. This means headlines like "Smith County Fair Leads to 200 Covid Cases" ain't necessarily so. Between the two week incubation and the lag time for collecting and completing the tests may mean the county fair was two weeks or more after the infection cluster.

Long ago my parents taught me this: They don't Give you the news, they Sell you the news. If it bleeds, it leads.
Don't let other peoples limitations become your constraints!

My Deviant Art scribbles
The Atomic Guide to Basic GIMP Stuff

User avatar
Atomic
Posts: 2679
Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2012 12:39 am
Location: Central PA
Contact:

Re: March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

Post by Atomic » Fri May 29, 2020 10:44 am

WHO - “Masks should only be used by health care workers, caretakers or by people who are sick with symptoms of fever and cough.” Link

Second Wave? Maybe not, but wear mask. - Dr. Fauci
Don't let other peoples limitations become your constraints!

My Deviant Art scribbles
The Atomic Guide to Basic GIMP Stuff

User avatar
Sgt. Howard
Posts: 3128
Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2012 11:54 pm
Location: Malott, Washington

Re: March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

Post by Sgt. Howard » Fri May 29, 2020 11:20 am

Atomic wrote:
Fri May 29, 2020 10:44 am
WHO - “Masks should only be used by health care workers, caretakers or by people who are sick with symptoms of fever and cough.” Link

Second Wave? Maybe not, but wear mask. - Dr. Fauci
Be advised if you have a concealed carry permit; If you wear a mask while packing a firearm, in some states that amounts to a felony. It is incumbent upon the gun owner to know the law. Check with your local Sheriff's department, as they are the issuing authority...
Rule 17 of the Bombay Golf Course- "You shall play the ball where the monkey drops it,"
I speak fluent Limrick-
the Old Sgt.

User avatar
Dave
Posts: 7025
Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2012 5:58 pm
Location: Mountain View, CA, USA

Re: March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

Post by Dave » Fri May 29, 2020 1:43 pm

Atomic wrote:
Fri May 29, 2020 10:44 am
WHO - “Masks should only be used by health care workers, caretakers or by people who are sick with symptoms of fever and cough.” Link
It's a bit misleading to headline that as "WHO says". "WHO said" is more accurate.

Although that video is still up on the WHO web site, it's actually almost 3 months old (on the YouTube site it says March 6). The downloadable advice-and-practices document which seems to back it, hasn't been updated since early April... and the document clearly says "interim" advice on the subject, and defers to local practices on mask-wearing where such have been declared by local governments. Neither of these has been updated to reflect newer studies on the virus, or the current state of its spread. The NY Post article neglects to mention that this advice is months old.

In the early days of the epidemic, a lot of organizations (including WHO) didn't encourage the wide-spread wearing of masks, for a number of good reasons. Among them:
  • The supply of good medical masks was very limited. It was seen as important to reserve medical masks for those "on the front lines" - health care workers and first responders.
  • Masks have to be used (and removed and disposed of) very carefully in order to provide the wearer a real protection against becoming infected.
  • Wearing a mask can give a person a false sense of protection, causing the wearer to neglect more-effective protections (social distancing, frequent hand-washing).
We know a good deal more about COVID-19 today, than we did in early March. In particular, we have more accurate information about the rate of "infected, infectious, but asymptomatic" individuals... CDC is saying it looks as if about a third of those infected are asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic. We also know more about the way it spreads (largely from droplets emitted when sneezing, coughing, talking, or even breathing).

So, these days, there's a renewed focus on wearing masks... not primarily to protect the wearer from becoming infected, but to keep the infected (and often asymptomatic) from spreading the disease to others. Countries where mask-wearing is common, also seem to have a lower rate of community spread of the virus. There's good reason to believe that wide-spread mask wearing (in combination with social distancing and good hygiene) does limit the spread of the virus. Home-made cloth masks are adequate for this - N95 masks aren't necessary.

I don't, personally, wear a mask when I'm out and about in order to protect myself. I depend on social distancing and hand-cleansing to do that. Maybe having a mask on gives me a bit of an edge, but I don't count on it.

I wear a mask when I'm out and about to keep other people safe, in case I have become infected (despite my precautions) and don't know it yet. I'm doing it to protect my neighbors, my friends, and the dozen or hundred strangers I pass when I make one of my infrequent trips to a store.

Yes, it's clumsy, hot, uncomfortable, and my glasses fog up more often than not. That's life.

I don't want to get COVID-19 - I'm old enough to be at elevated risk. I don't want Gwen to get COVID-19 - she's older than I, and has preexisting health conditions which put her at high risk.

But, I especially don't want either of us to go to our grave knowing that our negligence led to somebody else dying, unnecessarily.

That's why I wear a mask.

User avatar
lake_wrangler
Posts: 3787
Joined: Sun Aug 05, 2012 8:16 am
Location: Montréal, Québec, Canada

Re: March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

Post by lake_wrangler » Sun May 31, 2020 8:49 am

Apparently, PragerU has been putting out videos on the subject of the Coronavirus, to disseminate views that won't necessarily get much air on mainstream media:

https://www.prageru.com/coronavirus-series/

Warrl
Posts: 1516
Joined: Sat Jul 20, 2013 10:44 pm

Re: March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

Post by Warrl » Sun May 31, 2020 2:31 pm

Videos. I can download several megabytes per minute of video time so that I can watch and listen to information that I could read far faster if they'd just put it in a few kilobytes of text...

User avatar
lake_wrangler
Posts: 3787
Joined: Sun Aug 05, 2012 8:16 am
Location: Montréal, Québec, Canada

Re: March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

Post by lake_wrangler » Sun May 31, 2020 6:09 pm

Warrl wrote:
Sun May 31, 2020 2:31 pm
Videos. I can download several megabytes per minute of video time so that I can watch and listen to information that I could read far faster if they'd just put it in a few kilobytes of text...
I know what you mean. One of the daily/weekly emails I get sends me to a page with an audio podcast, which also includes a transcript of the podcast... I don't bother taking the time to listen to the podcast, I just read the parts of the transcript which interest me (it's a half hour podcast which covers a few subjects in each podcast...)

But I guess younger people, who are practically surgically attached to their "smart" phones, will enjoy being able to watch the videos on their cell phone.

User avatar
jwhouk
Posts: 5856
Joined: Wed Aug 01, 2012 7:58 am
Location: The Valley of the Sun, Arizona
Contact:

Re: March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

Post by jwhouk » Sun May 31, 2020 6:33 pm

I'm... not a very big fan of Prager U.
"Character is what you are in the dark." - D.L. Moody
"You should never run from the voices in your head. That's how you give them power." - Jin

User avatar
Sgt. Howard
Posts: 3128
Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2012 11:54 pm
Location: Malott, Washington

Re: March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

Post by Sgt. Howard » Mon Jun 01, 2020 2:11 am

Apparently, Coronavirus is now a page 3 concern...
Rule 17 of the Bombay Golf Course- "You shall play the ball where the monkey drops it,"
I speak fluent Limrick-
the Old Sgt.

User avatar
lake_wrangler
Posts: 3787
Joined: Sun Aug 05, 2012 8:16 am
Location: Montréal, Québec, Canada

Re: March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

Post by lake_wrangler » Mon Jun 01, 2020 4:27 am

You know how it is... sensationalism sells... :roll:

Alkarii
Posts: 1504
Joined: Sun Nov 09, 2014 3:02 pm

Re: March 12, 2020 (aka COVID-19 thread)

Post by Alkarii » Mon Jun 01, 2020 6:41 am

This has even me on edge, because there was some craziness in downtown LR last night.
There is no such thing as a science experiment gone wrong.

Post Reply